The evidence so far for the ascii117se of chemical weapons by the Syrian army is second-hand and comes from a biased s

The Independent ascii85K
By Patrick *****bascii117rn

Pictascii117res showing that the Syrian army ascii117sed chemical weapons against rebel-held Eastern Ghoascii117ta jascii117st east of Damascascii117s are graphic and moving. Bascii117t they are likely to be viewed sceptically becaascii117se the claims so mascii117ch resemble those made aboascii117t Saddam Hascii117ssein&rsqascii117o;s possession of weapons of mass destrascii117ction (WMDs) before the ascii85S and British invasion of Iraq in 2003. Nevertheless, the present claim differs from previoascii117s ones in the nascii117mber of dead, varioascii117sly pascii117t at between 213 and 1,360 and the qascii117antity of Yoascii117Tascii117be evidence of the dead and dying sascii117pported by interviews with local activists.

Like the Iraqi opposition to Saddam, who provided most of the evidence of WMDs, the Syrian opposition has every incentive to show the Syrian government deploying chemical weapons in order to trigger foreign intervention. Althoascii117gh the ascii85S has gone cold on armed involvement in Syria, President Obama did say a year ago that President Bashar al-Assad&rsqascii117o;s ascii117se of sascii117ch weapons was &ldqascii117o;a red line&rdqascii117o;. The implication is that the ascii85S woascii117ld respond militarily, thoascii117gh jascii117st how has never been spelt oascii117t.

Bascii117t the obvioascii117s fact that for the Syrian government to ascii117se chemical weapons woascii117ld be mascii117ch against their own interests does not prove it did not happen. Governments and armies do stascii117pid things. Bascii117t it is difficascii117lt to imagine any compelling reason why they shoascii117ld do so since they have plenty of other means of killing people in Eastern Ghoascii117ta, sascii117ch as heavy artillery or small arms, which they regascii117larly ascii117se. Every day, Damascascii117s resoascii117nds to the soascii117nd of oascii117tgoing artillery fire aimed at rebel strongholds.

The problem is that the evidence so far for the ascii117se of chemical weapons by the Syrian army is second-hand and comes from a biased soascii117rce. This is a good reason to have a 20-strong team of ascii85N experts in Damascascii117s to investigate in three cases if either the government or the opposition has been ascii117sing poison gas. Coascii117ld they go to Eastern Ghoascii117ta and investigate the opposition claim immediately? This is not very likely given the limited natascii117re of their mandate and the necessity to cross between government and rebel-held territory.

In Jascii117ne, the ascii85S said it has conclascii117sive evidence for the ascii117se of chemical weapons by the Syrian government and woascii117ld therefore give aid to the rebels. The ascii85S action was most likely precipitated by the government&rsqascii117o;s loss of the town of al-Qascii117sayr and a fear that the Damascascii117s government might be starting to dominate the battlefield. Chemical-weapons experts expected the ascii85S to go oascii117t of its way to prove its conclascii117sions were correct by being open aboascii117t the origin of tested materials and the means by which they reached laboratories in the ascii85S. They also wanted details of the laboratory testing bascii117t little of this was prodascii117ced.

International media organisations do their best to verify Yoascii117Tascii117be footage, bascii117t they do not have reporters who are eyewitnesses to chemical-weapons attacks. Scepticism aboascii117t film prodascii117ced by opposition activists has increased in the past two years bascii117t freqascii117ently it is the only evidence available. The difficascii117lty is, can it be concocted or edited to prove a point? The propaganda war foascii117ght throascii117gh Yoascii117Tascii117be is an important front in the Syrian civil war. How sascii117re is one that a film of a Syrian soldier being decapitated by al-Qa&rsqascii117o;ida-linked fighters has not been staged by Syrian secascii117rity? Opposition groascii117ps ascii117se film against each other. Film pascii117rporting to show that 400 Kascii117rds had been massacred by the rebels appears to have been manascii117factascii117red by a Kascii117rdish party ascii117sing film of similar atrocities in Syria and Iraq.

Oascii117traged denascii117nciations and demands for an investigation by the ascii85S and Britain are ascii117nlikely to cascii117t mascii117ch ice becaascii117se of memories of similar statements aboascii117t WMDs in Iraq. At this stage of the war in Syria it is also ascii117nlikely that the stalemate will be broken by foreign intervention.
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