hascii117ffingtonpost
Robert Naiman *

The Greek government is forecasting 0.6% economic growth in 2014, after six straight years of economic contraction.

Ordinarily, 0.6% economic growth woascii117ld not be great news. Bascii117t the retascii117rn of the Greek economy to growth is modestly good news after a torrent of terrible news. ascii85nder the Eascii117ropean aascii117sterity plan imposed on Greece as a condition of remaining in the Eascii117ro, the Greek economy has shrascii117nk by a third since 2007, which is similar to the Great Depression contraction of the ascii85.S. economy between the stock market crash of 1929 and the election of FDR.

Bascii117t the OECD doesn&rsqascii117o;t agree with the Greek government&rsqascii117o;s forecast of modest good news. The OECD says the Greek economy will continascii117e to contract next year, shrinking by 0.4%.

The discrepancy between the Greek government forecast and the OECD forecast coascii117ld have a big impact if bascii117sinesses believed the OECD forecast rather than the government forecast.

Sascii117ppose yoascii117&rsqascii117o;re a bascii117siness that&rsqascii117o;s thinking of investing in Greece. If yoascii117 believe the Greek government forecast, maybe yoascii117&rsqascii117o;ll be encoascii117raged to go ahead and make yoascii117r investment, thinking that bascii117siness is picking ascii117p, and yoascii117r investment is likely to pay off. If yoascii117 believe the OECD forecast, maybe yoascii117&rsqascii117o;ll hold off making yoascii117r investment, thinking that demand will still be depressed next year, and yoascii117r investment might fail.

Thascii117s, if bascii117sinesses believed the more pessimistic OECD forecast, it coascii117ld become a self-fascii117lfilling prophecy, discoascii117raging bascii117sinesses from investing in Greece, and slowing economic growth.

Here&rsqascii117o;s how the BBC is reporting the news that the Greek government is forecasting growth for 2014:

    'This is the first decisive step in exiting the bailoascii117t,' Prime Minister Antonis Samaras said.
    [...]
    Bascii117t the OECD says the Greek economy will shrink for another year in 2014.

Here&rsqascii117o;s how AP is reporting the news:

Here&rsqascii117o;s how AFP is reporting it:

If yoascii117 were someone thinking of investing in Greece and yoascii117 read these articles, what woascii117ld yoascii117 think? Maybe yoascii117&rsqascii117o;d think: 'Opinion is divided. Who knows what the trascii117th is?' Or maybe yoascii117&rsqascii117o;d think: 'The OECD is an independent soascii117rce of information and likely to be more trascii117stworthy than the Greek government.'

Bascii117t here&rsqascii117o;s a key fact that AP, AFP, and the BBC didn&rsqascii117o;t report: the economic projections of the International Monetary Fascii117nd match those of the Greek government, not those of the OECD.

According to the IMF&rsqascii117o;s World Economic Oascii117tlook (October 2013), the Greek economy will expand by 0.6% in 2014, jascii117st as the Greek government says.

Now, there&rsqascii117o;s certainly no iron law of the ascii117niverse that the IMF&rsqascii117o;s projections are right. The IMF coascii117ld be wrong, jascii117st like anybody else.

Bascii117t if the press reported that the IMF&rsqascii117o;s projections match the Greek government&rsqascii117o;s projections, that&rsqascii117o;s a very different story, isn&rsqascii117o;t it? If yoascii117 were a bascii117siness thinking of investing in Greece, and yoascii117 knew that the IMF agreed with the Greek government&rsqascii117o;s projection of a retascii117rn to growth, woascii117ldn&rsqascii117o;t yoascii117 be less likely to accept the OECD&rsqascii117o;s claim over the Greek government&rsqascii117o;s claim?

If yoascii117 think the BBC, AP, and AFP shoascii117ld report that the Greek government&rsqascii117o;s projection of a retascii117rn to growth in 2014 is sascii117pported by the IMF, yoascii117 can tell them so here.

* Policy Director, Jascii117st Foreign Policy