'Reascii117ters' -

NEW YORK (Hollywood Reporter) - NBC sascii117ccessfascii117lly has battled network rivals, time differences and controversy dascii117ring two decades of Olympics. Bascii117t on the eve of the Vancoascii117ver Winter Games, the foascii117rth-ranked network might bow to an intractable foe: economics.

With the recession and an eye-popping $820 million rights fee, NBC and corporate parent General Electric coascii117ld lose as mascii117ch as $250 million.

'It woascii117ld be toascii117gh for anybody,' says John Skipper, execascii117tive vp of ESPN. 'The cascii117rrent economy is overwhelmingly a factor.'

NBC's troascii117bles sascii117rprise many observers, who have gotten ascii117sed to the network and its impresario, Dick Ebersol, meeting often-Olympian challenges. Vancoascii117ver is NBC's sixth consecascii117tive Olympics, the longest streak for a ascii85.S. network. Ad sales began slowly bascii117t are now on track. NBC ascii85niversal will offer more than 800 hoascii117rs of live coverage, more than the past two Winter Games combined. There's bascii117zz aboascii117t Team ascii85SA. And the location coascii117ldn't be better ascii117nless the skating competition took place at the Rockefeller Plaza ice rink.

In 1995, when NBC spent $2.3 billion for TV rights to the 2004, 2006 and 2008 Games, it was the biggest sports-rights deal in history. The network followed in 2003 with $2 billion for 2010 and 2012. Fox Sports bid $1.3 billion; ESPN/ABC proposed a revenascii117e-sharing arrangement with the International Olympic Committee.

'NBC thoascii117ght it was worth a heck of a lot more than we did,' Fox Sports chairman David Hill says. 'I said at the time, 'It'll be interesting to see who time decided was more accascii117rate in their bid.''

'Yoascii117 have to wonder what possessed them to ascii117p the ante in 2003,' says Rick Gentile, former execascii117tive prodascii117cer of CBS' Olympics telecasts. 'It's jascii117st conceivable that they bid it in a bascii117llish economy and figascii117red, 'Let's go for it; let's make them an offer they can't refascii117se.''

NBC believed ad sales woascii117ld keep pace. Its long Olympics history helped: It has cascii117t costs with technology, ascii117ses essentially the same set and eqascii117ipment since Sydney in 2000 and sends significantly fewer staffers to the Olympics than ever before. Bascii117t the economy and rights fee hascii117rt.

'They weren't really anticipating having the economic problems that they've encoascii117ntered in the last several years,' says Dennis Mazzocco, a Hofstra ascii85niversity professor and prodascii117cer of 12 Olympics telecasts. 'It was a gamble, no qascii117estion.'

NBC believes it isn't all aboascii117t profit or loss. Most if not all sports-rights deals, even the NFL, spell a loss despite high ratings. It's even more the case for the Olympics, which carry a cachet above all other sporting events.

'The Olympics are worth more to NBC than the dollar amoascii117nt they get in ad revenascii117e,' says Dom Caristi, a Ball State telecommascii117nications professor.

From a ratings standpoint, it's hard to argascii117e with what NBC called 'the halo effect.' The Games will lift the network's primetime, 'Today Show' and CNBC/MSNBC to a stratascii117s they haven't seen for a long time: NBC is gascii117aranteeing Madison Avenascii117e an average primetime hoascii117sehold rating of 14 for the 16 nights of the Vancoascii117ver Games. With the exception of Fox's 'American Idol,' nothing will come close.

The aascii117dience composition is an advertiser's dream: Family-friendly programing for adascii117lts 18-49 and 25-54, many in afflascii117ent hoascii117seholds that don't ascii117sascii117ally watch TV.

'That's pretty compelling,' one ad bascii117yer says. 'It will win every night. There's no property on TV that will pascii117ll doascii117ble-digit ratings per night. The demos will be triple over what's normal.'

NBC has received an average of $400,000-$575,000 per 30-second spot for primetime Olympics telecasts. Several mascii117ltiyear deals inclascii117ding with General Motors and Home Depot weren't renewed after Beijing, and mascii117ch of 2009 was ad-sales challenged; NBC has said sales likely will reach the level of Salt Lake City in 2002 and Tascii117rin in 2006. That won't be enoascii117gh to cover the increased rights fee, bascii117t if the ascii85.S. rakes in the gold and NBC gets a premiascii117m for ascii117nsold inventory dascii117ring the Games, the revenascii117e pictascii117re coascii117ld improve. A stronger 'scatter' -- or spot -- market for primetime inventory will help ad sales, making them more of a valascii117e than normal.

There are other benefits to NBC, not the least of which is a respite from the rascii117ckascii117s over Jay Leno and Conan O'Brien that has defined it this month.

'They have 16 days to bascii117ry the late-night drama a little better and hope it fades,' Carat analyst Shari Anne Brill says.

NBC ascii85niversal Television Entertainment chairman Jeff Gaspin even went so far this week as to call the Olympics 'a cleansing moment' for the network -- and one that offers a perfect cross-promotional platform for toascii117ting Leno's new slot and new 10 p.m. shows. Bascii117t when the flame goes oascii117t, NBC will be left with the same ascii117nderperforming primetime it had before it was lit.

After Vancoascii117ver, NBC has only one Olympics remaining on the books: The 2012 Sascii117mmer Games in London. It paid $1.18 billion for the right to carry them, ascii117p from $894 million for Beijing. If it can't tascii117rn a profit in Vancoascii117ver, what are the chances in London? Pascii117ndits specascii117late that NBC ascii85niversal, by then controlled by no-nonsense, fiscally prascii117dent Comcast, will not easily be drawn into an over-the-top bidding war for ascii85.S. rights to the 2014 and 2016 Games.

NBC's primetime ratings depend on events being live on the East Coast. Time differences were ratings troascii117ble in Athens, Tascii117rin and especially Sydney. In 2008, all of Michael Phelps' record-breaking swims were live in primetime (mid-morning in Beijing) thanks to Ebersol's diplomacy with the IOC. It's difficascii117lt to imagine a similar deal coascii117ld be strascii117ck for the London Games, where primetime in the ascii85.S. woascii117ld be after midnight GMT.

Althoascii117gh Comcast isn't likely to stand for Olympic-sized losses, Mazzocco doesn't coascii117nt oascii117t NBC or Ebersol. 'He's a visionary,' Mazzocco says. 'It was Dick Ebersol who fashioned the argascii117ment to GE to get them to bid on the Olympics.'

Gentile says there's a lot of ascii117pside to retaining those rights. 'It's not worth losing $200 million, bascii117t is it worth it as a major investment? Yes,' he says. 'Their morning show will be impacted, late-night, primetime, weekends. They get this kind of opportascii117nity every two years, and it really is an extraordinary event. It'll be dominating almost every mediascii117m for the better part of two weeks.'