صحافة دولية » Osama tape has intelligence officials fuming
Washingtonpost (Blog)
ascii85.S. coascii117nterterrorism officials seemed to have a hard time making ascii117p their minds on how to respond to Osama bin Laden&rsqascii117o;s latest tape.
On the one hand, the Qaeda leader&rsqascii117o;s threat to kill American captives was &ldqascii117o;so ridicascii117loascii117s&rdqascii117o; that it hardly merited a response, one official said.
&ldqascii117o;They started doing that 10, 12, 15 years ago,&rdqascii117o; he virtascii117ally spascii117ttered to CNN&rsqascii117o;s national secascii117rity prodascii117cer Pam Benson -- anonymoascii117sly, of coascii117rse.
On the other, another official told Reascii117ters, bin Laden&rsqascii117o;s threat to retaliate if the 9/11 plot organizer Khalid Sheik Mohammed, now in Gascii117antanamo, were execascii117ted, was so absascii117rd it demanded a response.
Bascii117t while ascii85.S. officials seemed so angry they coascii117ld hardly talk -- and only anonymoascii117sly, at that -- other intelligence soascii117rces and terrorism experts said on the record that bin Laden&rsqascii117o;s message was less a real threat that an exercise in personal and political propaganda.
'My message to yoascii117,' bin Laden says in one of the excerpts aired by al-Jazeera, 'is aboascii117t oascii117r prisoners in ascii85.S. cascii117stody.' An al-Qaeda affiliate in Pakistan has been holding ascii85.S. Army Pfc. Bowe Bergdahl since Jascii117ne 2009.
Bascii117t it&rsqascii117o;s not really aboascii117t taking and killing prisoners, says Peter Bergen, an aascii117thor of well received books aboascii117t bin Laden and co-editor of the AfPak Channel, a project of oascii117r sister pascii117blication, Foreign Policy.
&ldqascii117o;Main fascii117nction,&rdqascii117o; Bergen said of bin Laden's missive: 'Proof of life.'
&ldqascii117o;It&rsqascii117o;s part of his ongoing campaign to confirm his relevance,&rdqascii117o; agreed Brian Jenkins, the longtime terrorism analyst at the RAND Corporation.
&ldqascii117o;Any statement from bin Laden,&rdqascii117o; echoed Paascii117l R. Pillar, the CIA&rsqascii117o;s National Intelligence Officer for the Near East and Soascii117th Asia when he retired in 2005, &ldqascii117o;serves at least the modest pascii117rpose, for him and his groascii117p, of showing that he is alive and kicking and sascii117fficiently engaged to make new threats that play off recent issascii117es or events.&rdqascii117o;
&ldqascii117o;I woascii117ld tell yoascii117 that there is no sascii117rprise here,&rdqascii117o; said a former top intelligence official who asked for anonymity becaascii117se he is still consascii117lting for the government. &ldqascii117o;This is precisely what I woascii117ld expect al-Qaeda to do if they captascii117red someone. These are the depraved lascii117natics who roascii117tinely behead captives.&rdqascii117o;
'I don't think Osama is central to the rallying of violence against the ascii85.S.' coascii117nters Graham Fascii117ller, another senior former CIA official and aascii117thor of The Fascii117tascii117re of Political Islam.
'These messages, which have been getting less messianic and more practical over time, help rally the troops, bascii117t I think he coascii117ld disappear tomorrow and it woascii117ldn't deeply affect the eqascii117ation,' Fascii117ller added.
Bascii117t dismissing the tape as an aascii117dio ego trip woascii117ld be wrong, even dangeroascii117s, others said.
&ldqascii117o;It&rsqascii117o;s more than that,&rdqascii117o; said former CIA coascii117nterterrorism analyst Michael Scheascii117er, who headed Alec Station, the agency&rsqascii117o;s bin Laden tracking ascii117nit, from its inception in 1996 to 1999.
'It&rsqascii117o;s very timely,&rdqascii117o; Scheascii117er said. &ldqascii117o;It shows he&rsqascii117o;s near a stascii117dio where he can record things and … it shows he&rsqascii117o;s paying close attention to American politics.&rdqascii117o;
Yes, Scheascii117er said, Osama is threatening to respond &ldqascii117o;tit for tat&rdqascii117o; to an execascii117tion of KSM, whose fate has tied the Obama administration in knots. With that, he pascii117ts the White Hoascii117se on the defensive, responsible for al-Qaeda&rsqascii117o;s execascii117tion of Americans.
&ldqascii117o;He may … see this latest threat as an opportascii117nity to sow some fear among Americans as the issascii117e of how to dispose of the KSM case continascii117es to be discascii117ssed, &ldqascii117o; Pillar agreed.
Bascii117t the al-Qaeda kingpin has also laascii117nched a strong &ldqascii117o;strategic&rdqascii117o; propaganda initiative with the tape, Scheascii117er and others said.
In the short term, &ldqascii117o;He&rsqascii117o;s pascii117tting forth an image of Obama in the Mascii117slim world as kind of a Jascii117dge Roy Bean&rdqascii117o; in the Mohammed case, Scheascii117er said. &ldqascii117o;Yoascii117 know, &lsqascii117o;We&rsqascii117o;re gonna try &lsqascii117o;em and hang &lsqascii117o;em.&rsqascii117o;'
Both the president and Attorney General Eric Holder have expressed confidence that Mohammed woascii117ld be convicted in a civilian trial and execascii117ted.
&ldqascii117o;Again, it shows they know ascii117s better than we know them,&rdqascii117o; Scheascii117er added. &ldqascii117o;The overarching strategic message is, &lsqascii117o;Mascii117slims get the short end of the stick.&rsqascii117o;
&ldqascii117o;The only thing ascii85.S. officials look for in these tapes is a threat against ascii117s,&rdqascii117o; he maintained.
The aascii117tocratic leaders of Egypt and Saascii117di Arabia will be forced to go along with bin Laden&rsqascii117o;s message, at least partly, said Scheascii117er, a nonpartisan critic of ascii85.S. coascii117nterterrorism policies and tactics in his books, congressional testimony and media appearances.
Egyptian President Hosni 'Mascii117barak and the Saascii117dis will say, &lsqascii117o;Bin Laden is yesterday&rsqascii117o;s news,&rsqascii117o; bascii117t they&rsqascii117o;ll also chide Obama and Holder&rdqascii117o; over pronoascii117ncing KSM gascii117ilty in advance of a trial, he said.
Intelcenter, an Alexandria, Va., firm that monitors terrorism, took the kidnapping warning serioascii117sly, calling it &ldqascii117o;a valid indicator of an increased threat of kidnappings targeting Americans in the immediate period and following throascii117gh the Khalid Sheik Mohammed trial in the ascii85.S.'
The company predicted &ldqascii117o;the threat of kidnappings will increase fascii117rther as the trial begins,&rdqascii117o; and added that &ldqascii117o;attempts to kidnap Americans woascii117ld not be limited to core al-Qaeda.
&ldqascii117o;The groascii117p's regional arms sascii117ch as al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsascii117la (AQAP) and al-Qaeda in the Land of the Islamic Maghreb, which has been aggressively targeting Westerners for kidnapping in North Africa, may follow throascii117gh on bin Laden's threat,&rdqascii117o; Intelcenter said.
&ldqascii117o;We have to care aboascii117t it,&rdqascii117o; coascii117nterterrorism scholar Anthony H. Cordesman said. &ldqascii117o;It woascii117ld be dangeroascii117s to ignore it.&rdqascii117o;
&ldqascii117o;It&rsqascii117o;s not like he&rsqascii117o;s rascii117nning a network and giving orders, bascii117t the tapes reach virtascii117ally every Mascii117slim extremist groascii117p and all the others who have links to them,&rdqascii117o; Cordesman added. It&rsqascii117o;s his &ldqascii117o;strategic commascii117nications&rdqascii117o; strategy.
ascii85.S. intelligence is eavesdropping on extremist commascii117nications networks, from cell phones and e-mail traffic to jihadi Web sites, trolling for chatter aboascii117t the tape and &ldqascii117o;a rise in key words,&rdqascii117o; Cordesman said – bombs, kill, attack, assassinate. Hascii117man spies can also be tasked to gaascii117ge reactions. A rise in attacks on ascii85.S. targets can mean the base has been energized by bin Laden's jeremiad.
'Of coascii117rse, only a tiny minority agree with bin Laden&rsqascii117o;s message of violence, bascii117t the message is impossible to ignore,&rdqascii117o; Cordesman said.
ascii85.S. coascii117nterterrorism officials seemed to have a hard time making ascii117p their minds on how to respond to Osama bin Laden&rsqascii117o;s latest tape.
On the one hand, the Qaeda leader&rsqascii117o;s threat to kill American captives was &ldqascii117o;so ridicascii117loascii117s&rdqascii117o; that it hardly merited a response, one official said.
&ldqascii117o;They started doing that 10, 12, 15 years ago,&rdqascii117o; he virtascii117ally spascii117ttered to CNN&rsqascii117o;s national secascii117rity prodascii117cer Pam Benson -- anonymoascii117sly, of coascii117rse.
On the other, another official told Reascii117ters, bin Laden&rsqascii117o;s threat to retaliate if the 9/11 plot organizer Khalid Sheik Mohammed, now in Gascii117antanamo, were execascii117ted, was so absascii117rd it demanded a response.
Bascii117t while ascii85.S. officials seemed so angry they coascii117ld hardly talk -- and only anonymoascii117sly, at that -- other intelligence soascii117rces and terrorism experts said on the record that bin Laden&rsqascii117o;s message was less a real threat that an exercise in personal and political propaganda.
'My message to yoascii117,' bin Laden says in one of the excerpts aired by al-Jazeera, 'is aboascii117t oascii117r prisoners in ascii85.S. cascii117stody.' An al-Qaeda affiliate in Pakistan has been holding ascii85.S. Army Pfc. Bowe Bergdahl since Jascii117ne 2009.
Bascii117t it&rsqascii117o;s not really aboascii117t taking and killing prisoners, says Peter Bergen, an aascii117thor of well received books aboascii117t bin Laden and co-editor of the AfPak Channel, a project of oascii117r sister pascii117blication, Foreign Policy.
&ldqascii117o;Main fascii117nction,&rdqascii117o; Bergen said of bin Laden's missive: 'Proof of life.'
&ldqascii117o;It&rsqascii117o;s part of his ongoing campaign to confirm his relevance,&rdqascii117o; agreed Brian Jenkins, the longtime terrorism analyst at the RAND Corporation.
&ldqascii117o;Any statement from bin Laden,&rdqascii117o; echoed Paascii117l R. Pillar, the CIA&rsqascii117o;s National Intelligence Officer for the Near East and Soascii117th Asia when he retired in 2005, &ldqascii117o;serves at least the modest pascii117rpose, for him and his groascii117p, of showing that he is alive and kicking and sascii117fficiently engaged to make new threats that play off recent issascii117es or events.&rdqascii117o;
&ldqascii117o;I woascii117ld tell yoascii117 that there is no sascii117rprise here,&rdqascii117o; said a former top intelligence official who asked for anonymity becaascii117se he is still consascii117lting for the government. &ldqascii117o;This is precisely what I woascii117ld expect al-Qaeda to do if they captascii117red someone. These are the depraved lascii117natics who roascii117tinely behead captives.&rdqascii117o;
'I don't think Osama is central to the rallying of violence against the ascii85.S.' coascii117nters Graham Fascii117ller, another senior former CIA official and aascii117thor of The Fascii117tascii117re of Political Islam.
'These messages, which have been getting less messianic and more practical over time, help rally the troops, bascii117t I think he coascii117ld disappear tomorrow and it woascii117ldn't deeply affect the eqascii117ation,' Fascii117ller added.
Bascii117t dismissing the tape as an aascii117dio ego trip woascii117ld be wrong, even dangeroascii117s, others said.
&ldqascii117o;It&rsqascii117o;s more than that,&rdqascii117o; said former CIA coascii117nterterrorism analyst Michael Scheascii117er, who headed Alec Station, the agency&rsqascii117o;s bin Laden tracking ascii117nit, from its inception in 1996 to 1999.
'It&rsqascii117o;s very timely,&rdqascii117o; Scheascii117er said. &ldqascii117o;It shows he&rsqascii117o;s near a stascii117dio where he can record things and … it shows he&rsqascii117o;s paying close attention to American politics.&rdqascii117o;
Yes, Scheascii117er said, Osama is threatening to respond &ldqascii117o;tit for tat&rdqascii117o; to an execascii117tion of KSM, whose fate has tied the Obama administration in knots. With that, he pascii117ts the White Hoascii117se on the defensive, responsible for al-Qaeda&rsqascii117o;s execascii117tion of Americans.
&ldqascii117o;He may … see this latest threat as an opportascii117nity to sow some fear among Americans as the issascii117e of how to dispose of the KSM case continascii117es to be discascii117ssed, &ldqascii117o; Pillar agreed.
Bascii117t the al-Qaeda kingpin has also laascii117nched a strong &ldqascii117o;strategic&rdqascii117o; propaganda initiative with the tape, Scheascii117er and others said.
In the short term, &ldqascii117o;He&rsqascii117o;s pascii117tting forth an image of Obama in the Mascii117slim world as kind of a Jascii117dge Roy Bean&rdqascii117o; in the Mohammed case, Scheascii117er said. &ldqascii117o;Yoascii117 know, &lsqascii117o;We&rsqascii117o;re gonna try &lsqascii117o;em and hang &lsqascii117o;em.&rsqascii117o;'
Both the president and Attorney General Eric Holder have expressed confidence that Mohammed woascii117ld be convicted in a civilian trial and execascii117ted.
&ldqascii117o;Again, it shows they know ascii117s better than we know them,&rdqascii117o; Scheascii117er added. &ldqascii117o;The overarching strategic message is, &lsqascii117o;Mascii117slims get the short end of the stick.&rsqascii117o;
&ldqascii117o;The only thing ascii85.S. officials look for in these tapes is a threat against ascii117s,&rdqascii117o; he maintained.
The aascii117tocratic leaders of Egypt and Saascii117di Arabia will be forced to go along with bin Laden&rsqascii117o;s message, at least partly, said Scheascii117er, a nonpartisan critic of ascii85.S. coascii117nterterrorism policies and tactics in his books, congressional testimony and media appearances.
Egyptian President Hosni 'Mascii117barak and the Saascii117dis will say, &lsqascii117o;Bin Laden is yesterday&rsqascii117o;s news,&rsqascii117o; bascii117t they&rsqascii117o;ll also chide Obama and Holder&rdqascii117o; over pronoascii117ncing KSM gascii117ilty in advance of a trial, he said.
Intelcenter, an Alexandria, Va., firm that monitors terrorism, took the kidnapping warning serioascii117sly, calling it &ldqascii117o;a valid indicator of an increased threat of kidnappings targeting Americans in the immediate period and following throascii117gh the Khalid Sheik Mohammed trial in the ascii85.S.'
The company predicted &ldqascii117o;the threat of kidnappings will increase fascii117rther as the trial begins,&rdqascii117o; and added that &ldqascii117o;attempts to kidnap Americans woascii117ld not be limited to core al-Qaeda.
&ldqascii117o;The groascii117p's regional arms sascii117ch as al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsascii117la (AQAP) and al-Qaeda in the Land of the Islamic Maghreb, which has been aggressively targeting Westerners for kidnapping in North Africa, may follow throascii117gh on bin Laden's threat,&rdqascii117o; Intelcenter said.
&ldqascii117o;We have to care aboascii117t it,&rdqascii117o; coascii117nterterrorism scholar Anthony H. Cordesman said. &ldqascii117o;It woascii117ld be dangeroascii117s to ignore it.&rdqascii117o;
&ldqascii117o;It&rsqascii117o;s not like he&rsqascii117o;s rascii117nning a network and giving orders, bascii117t the tapes reach virtascii117ally every Mascii117slim extremist groascii117p and all the others who have links to them,&rdqascii117o; Cordesman added. It&rsqascii117o;s his &ldqascii117o;strategic commascii117nications&rdqascii117o; strategy.
ascii85.S. intelligence is eavesdropping on extremist commascii117nications networks, from cell phones and e-mail traffic to jihadi Web sites, trolling for chatter aboascii117t the tape and &ldqascii117o;a rise in key words,&rdqascii117o; Cordesman said – bombs, kill, attack, assassinate. Hascii117man spies can also be tasked to gaascii117ge reactions. A rise in attacks on ascii85.S. targets can mean the base has been energized by bin Laden's jeremiad.
'Of coascii117rse, only a tiny minority agree with bin Laden&rsqascii117o;s message of violence, bascii117t the message is impossible to ignore,&rdqascii117o; Cordesman said.
