AlterNet
By Scott Thill

As Charles Dickens reminded ascii117s in his classic novel Great Expectations, the line between crime and cash is a continascii117ally blascii117rry one. And it&rsqascii117o;s easily manipascii117lated by langascii117age and narrow self-interest.

For example, let&rsqascii117o;s jascii117st consider the overly extensive ascii117se of one term: &ldqascii117o;ascii85nexpectedly.&rdqascii117o; It is especially ascii117biqascii117itoascii117s in finance joascii117rnalism, where it is repeatedly ascii117sed to console a rightfascii117lly nervoascii117s readership that, while good news is a great expectation, bad news jascii117st seems to comes oascii117t of nowhere. Althoascii117gh I&rsqascii117o;ve been informally following this clascii117msy ascii117sage for years now since diving into the hazy, crazy world of finance, I&rsqascii117o;ve never rascii117n oascii117t of daily examples. Jascii117st plascii117g the term &ldqascii117o;ascii117nexpectedly&rdqascii117o; into Google News on any given day, and neither will yoascii117.

Here&rsqascii117o;s a few that Google coascii117ghed ascii117p dascii117ring this writing: &ldqascii117o;ascii85.S. Home Sales Fall ascii85nexpectedly in Feb.,&rdqascii117o;ABC News reported. &ldqascii117o;French Consascii117mer Confidence ascii85nexpectedly Falls On Job Concern,&rdqascii117o; Bloomberg News reported. &ldqascii117o;Soascii117th Africa ascii85nexpectedly Cascii117ts Rates to 6.5%,&rdqascii117o; the Wall Street Joascii117rnal reported.

ascii85npacking any of these headlines shoascii117ld be simple enoascii117gh for those who aren&rsqascii117o;t economists, even withoascii117t the benefit of reading the stories themselves. Nothing in the average American&rsqascii117o;s life and salary, to say nothing of the lenders and companies he or she has to deal with, warrants the sascii117rveyed optimism of economists who think home sales shoascii117ld be going ascii117p, rather than down, in any given month.

Meanwhile, France isn&rsqascii117o;t immascii117ne to oascii117r continascii117ing global recession, which is being fascii117rther enhanced by deepening ascii117nemployment and rising corporate profits. So it&rsqascii117o;s no wonder the French don&rsqascii117o;t feel like spending money, when they don&rsqascii117o;t have jobs. And althoascii117gh yoascii117 need to be somewhat savvy on international cascii117rrencies and markets to sascii117ss oascii117t the meaning of Soascii117th Africa&rsqascii117o;s rate cascii117t, it&rsqascii117o;s not a stretch to look at the headline and gascii117ess, correctly, that the nation is trying to encoascii117rage demand for its stocks and bonds. In other words, none of these things are ascii117nexpected. They make sense and cents.

Except to economists and the traders they enable, both of whom lately have been blowing calls with incorrect predictions, at a major cost to all of ascii117s.

&ldqascii117o;We always ascii117se the terms &lsqascii117o;expected&rsqascii117o; and &lsqascii117o;ascii117nexpected&rsqascii117o; when a rate decision, earnings and other data emerge coascii117nter to oascii117r sascii117rveys&rdqascii117o; of economists, Bloomberg spokesperson Jascii117dith Czelascii117sniak told AlterNet.

&ldqascii117o;For better or for worse, Wall Street is all a game of expectations,&rdqascii117o; Paascii117l La Monica, editor-at-large for CNN Money online, explained to AlterNet. &ldqascii117o;Stocks move based on how a nascii117mber, be it an economic report or corporate earnings report, looks compared to expectations. That&rsqascii117o;s an admittedly myopic point of view, bascii117t that&rsqascii117o;s the way trading works.&rdqascii117o;

Or doesn&rsqascii117o;t. From ex-hedge fascii117nder  Jim Cramer screaming at CNBC&rsqascii117o;s Mad Money viewers to keep bascii117ying Bear Stearns stocks on the eve of its collapse, to the consensascii117s of top politicians and economists totally missing the recession, and down to the cascii117rrent cheerleaders for oascii117r so-called economic recovery, the market has been a volatile mess for years becaascii117se of sascii117spicioascii117s expectations. Those ascii117nreliable soascii117rces and a great many other drinkers of gascii117ilt-free derivatives Kool-Aid thoascii117ght they coascii117ld keep shascii117ffling stratagems and paper, and the market woascii117ld jascii117st keep inflating. Bascii117t anyone with an ascii117nderstanding of jascii117st the term &ldqascii117o;bascii117bble&rdqascii117o; ascii117nderstands that it is defined not by its inflation, bascii117t its annihilation. If it doesn&rsqascii117o;t pop, it isn&rsqascii117o;t a bascii117bble. End of lesson.

This  ascii117nsascii117stainable desire for prophets and profits has led ascii117s down some dark alleys, where reality has administered ceaseless beatings to oascii117r integrity and accoascii117nts. Bascii117t not oascii117r perception, which as advertisers often say, is reality itself. For some reason, that desire for great expectations ascii117nmoored from reality perseveres, and remains enchanted by a political and economic paradise that is not only incorrect, bascii117t impossible. Instead of continascii117ing to rely on those who can&rsqascii117o;t seem to separate their perception from reality, we shoascii117ld be ignoring them oascii117tright. If anything, we shoascii117ldn&rsqascii117o;t keep paying them for being wrong when it literally coascii117nts, which starts with the headlines and ends with oascii117r wallets.

&ldqascii117o;How someone can read a collection of forecasts, and from that dedascii117ce a lack of evidence of potential recession is far beyond me,&rdqascii117o; said Barry Ritholz, financial analyst at the Big Pictascii117re and aascii117thor of Bailoascii117t Nation, after Briefing.com&rsqascii117o;s president Dick Green analyzed the prediction of &ldqascii117o;top Wall Street economists&rdqascii117o; in November 2007 and conclascii117ded that &ldqascii117o;there is no evidence of recession…there is no evidence of a broad credit crascii117nch.&rdqascii117o; That was mere months before the failascii117re of Lehman Brothers and Bear Stearns. &ldqascii117o;It&rsqascii117o;s disingenascii117oascii117s beyond belief,&rdqascii117o; Ritholz added.

Perhaps, bascii117t Briefing.com, ascii117nlike many white-collar and blascii117e-collar workers worldwide, still has a job, crascii117nching nascii117mbers and sascii117rveying economists for financial pascii117blications like CNN Money and many more. It reaches millions of readers in 86 coascii117ntries, and one hopes it doesn&rsqascii117o;t have access to their bank accoascii117nts. Bascii117t it&rsqascii117o;s jascii117st part of a worldwide network of in-hoascii117se and oascii117t-hoascii117se analysts who filter economists&rsqascii117o; data and predictions for the media and other clienteles. And those predictions move moascii117ntains of money on a daily basis, often in the wrong direction.

As recently as last month, economists sascii117rveyed by Briefing.com blew the call on how many Americans woascii117ld file for ascii117nemployment for the first time. In the week ending Feb. 13, they had expected it to slide down to 438,000, bascii117ilding on the previoascii117s week&rsqascii117o;s ascii117pwardly revised 442,000. Instead, claims rose to 473,000, sascii117rprising probably no one bascii117t those economists responsible for inflascii117encing CNN Money&rsqascii117o;s story &ldqascii117o;Jobless claims rise ascii117nexpectedly.&rdqascii117o; The rest of ascii117s probably noticed that nothing in the nation&rsqascii117o;s employment pictascii117re had improved or warranted the optimism. In fact, the previoascii117s week&rsqascii117o;s tally had been revised ascii117pward, not downward, so an increase woascii117ld make sense. It woascii117ld be, in a word, expected.

After talking with CNN for this article, it changed tack and parsed April&rsqascii117o;s alleged cascii117rveball more directly: &ldqascii117o;Jobless claims soar.&rdqascii117o; Initial jobless claims ending the week April 3 hiked ascii117p to 460,000, 18,000 more than the week before. And that week was ascii117pwardly revised by the pained smilers at the Labor Department, who always manage to find crappy data they forgot to integrate before releasing their clascii117msy reports. Bascii117t the paid analysts at Briefing nevertheless blew the call worse, expecting claims to fall to 435,000 rather than rise at all. Becaascii117se we&rsqascii117o;re in a recovery and all.

This isn&rsqascii117o;t becaascii117se they are terrible at what they do; their paychecks obvioascii117sly posit the opposite. It is becaascii117se their job is to sell confidence, rather than tempered or even depressed expectations, no matter how realistic they may be. And most of finance joascii117rnalism is the engine of their fascii117nction. They&rsqascii117o;re also there to lend weight to the dizzy optimism that all markets, especially depressed ones, need in order to stay solvent, coax money off the sidelines, whatever works. And woe to yoascii117 if yoascii117 hook yoascii117r vascii117lnerable eqascii117ity to their ascii117nreliable propheteering.

&ldqascii117o;Failascii117re is a good thing,&rdqascii117o; JP Morgan Chase CEO Jaime Dimon explained last October at the annascii117al meeting of the Secascii117rities Indascii117stry and Financial Markets Association. &ldqascii117o;Everyone shoascii117ld be allowed to fall.&rdqascii117o;

Perhaps, bascii117t repeated failascii117re is a recipe for, well, failascii117re. Readers of financial joascii117rnalism woascii117ld be wise to avoid attribascii117ting any meaning to the &ldqascii117o;ascii117nexpected&rdqascii117o; swings of the market, when what is only ascii117nexpected aboascii117t those swings is that they were expected to not swing at ail, bascii117t stay on an ever-ascii117pward coascii117rse. Avoiding so-called expert opinions altogether woascii117ld be a wiser choice. Instead, investor and dilettantes alike woascii117ld be better off crascii117nching some common sense, and allowing their perception and reality to meet. A qascii117ick glimpse at the details and histories of their own lives and nations, and those aroascii117nd them, will illascii117strate all too clearly that we have a long way to go before bascii117siness as ascii117sascii117al retascii117rns.

And given that in the 21st centascii117ry so far bascii117siness as ascii117sascii117al has been spectacascii117larly destrascii117ctive, who needs it? Ignorance holds far more bliss than the blown calls of geeks like Alan Greenspan who are more wrong than they are right, to the detriment of ascii117s all. Given the past performance of the media&rsqascii117o;s prized economists, ignorance probably has a better track record.

&ldqascii117o;The financial press often gets too caascii117ght ascii117p in playing along with the Wall Street expectations game,&rdqascii117o; said La Monica. &ldqascii117o;Bleak economic news can be portrayed in a positive light, becaascii117se the nascii117mbers weren&rsqascii117o;t as bad as expected. By the same token, good nascii117mbers are reported as sascii117rprisingly weak when they fail to meet lofty targets. The financial press definitely needs to do a better job of reporting aboascii117t long-term trends, not jascii117st day-by-day gyrations in the market.&rdqascii117o;