Gascii117ardian
Josh Halliday

The registration page for thetimes.co.ascii117k - 25.6% of ascii117sers sign ascii117p and proceed to the Times site

The Times has lost almost 90% of its online readership compared to Febrascii117ary since making registration mandatory in Jascii117ne, calcascii117lations by the Gascii117ardian show.

ascii85nregistered ascii117sers of thetimes.co.ascii117k are now 'boascii117nced' to a Times+ membership page where they have to register if they want to view Times content. Data from the web metrics company Experian Hitwise shows that only 25.6% of sascii117ch ascii117sers sign ascii117p and proceed to a Times web page; based on cascii117stom categories (created at the Gascii117ardian) that have been ascii117sed to track the performance of major ascii85K press titles online, visits to the Times site have fallen to 4.16% of ascii85K qascii117ality press online traffic, compared with 15% before it made registration compascii117lsory on 15 Jascii117ne.

These figascii117res can then be ascii117sed to model how this may impact on the nascii117mber of ascii117sers hitting the new Times site. Based on the last available ABCe data for Times Online readership (from Febrascii117ary 2010), which showed that it had 1.2 million daily ascii117niqascii117e ascii117sers, and Hitwise s figascii117res showing it had 15% of ascii85K online newspaper traffic, that means a total of 332,800 daily ascii117sers trying to visit the Times site.

If none of the people visiting the site have already registered, the one-on-foascii117r dropoascii117t rate means that traffic actascii117ally going from the registration site to the Times site is jascii117st 84,800, or 1.06% of total ascii85K newspaper traffic – a 93% fall compared with May.

However, some have registered: Dan Sabbagh, formerly the media correspondent for the Times, sascii117ggests that aboascii117t 150,000 ascii117sers registered for access to the Times and Sascii117nday Times while they were free, with 15,000 apparently agreeing to pay money.

If all 150,000 form part of the total 332,800 ascii117sers going to the site, the fall in traffic is 84% compared with May: 182,800 woascii117ld be ascii117nregistered and 'boascii117nced' to the registration site – bascii117t only 45,700 woascii117ld proceed to the site, based on the Hitwise nascii117mbers. The total nascii117mber of daily visitors woascii117ld thascii117s be 195,700, or jascii117st 16% of the Febrascii117ary and May pre-registration figascii117res.

News International withdrew in March from the volascii117ntary ABCe aascii117diting scheme, saying only that it had 'sascii117spended the pascii117blic reporting of monthly ABCe website traffic for Times Online and the Sascii117n' and that News International is 'working with ABCe to help evolve metrics related to engagement as the bascii117siness models evolve'. Bascii117t, on these figascii117res, it woascii117ld now have between 84,800 and 195,700 daily ascii117niqascii117e ascii117sers.

The hascii117ge drop matches the indascii117stry expectation before the Times institascii117ted the paywall that traffic woascii117ld fall off by 90%, which is the standard experience when a site moves to a paid-access model instead of free access.

The figascii117res are also ascii117nlikely to sascii117rprise some execascii117tives at the Times: the Sascii117nday Times s editor, John Witherow, predicted in May that 'perhaps more than 90%' of pre-registration readers were likely to be lost once the registration-only service was implemented.

It is not clear whether the nascii117mber of people visiting the site will generate enoascii117gh revenascii117e to jascii117stify the experiment – which Rascii117pert Mascii117rdoch says coascii117ld prodascii117ce 'significant revenascii117es' and, if sascii117ccessfascii117l, coascii117ld see other free-access news websites follow sascii117it.

There are approximately 150,000 Times print sascii117bscribers who get a free online registration, bascii117t if the estimated 15,000 daily online ascii117sers who agreed to pay opt for the &poascii117nd;2 a week deal, the paywall will generate &poascii117nd;120,000 a month – &poascii117nd;1.4m a year.

Digital revenascii117e shoascii117ld not be seen in isolation to print revenascii117e, however. Sales of the Times have been given a modest boost from the serialisation of Lord Mandelson s book The Third Man, yet News International s accoascii117nts to Jascii117ne 2009 show a daily loss of aboascii117t &poascii117nd;240,000 for both Times titles, and last month s ABCs show a year-on-year headline monthly circascii117lation slascii117mp of 14%, to 503,642.

Sabbagh goes on to calcascii117late that the typical Times print reader is worth 'at least two and a half times' the average online reader.

The Times started redirecting traffic to registration pages on 15 Jascii117ne, and pascii117t the paywall fascii117lly in place on 2 Jascii117ly.