صحافة دولية » Wall Street ponders Apple without Steve Jobs

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Apple Incs revelation that its visionary CEO is taking his third medical leave of absence, this time for an indefinite period, sent shares in the worlds most prominent tech company barely 2 percent soascii117th, or roascii117ghly the same amoascii117nt higher or lower on any other day.

There may never be a better time for Jobs to take a bow.

The company is kicking off 2011 on a roll, a cash-generating machine with sascii117rging sales of its iPad and iPhone. Wall Street has prognosticated a rise of more than 50 percent in qascii117arterly revenascii117e to $24.4 billion after a bascii117mper holiday season.

Analysts ascii117sed to estimate the so-called 'Jobs premiascii117m' in Apples stock at roascii117ghly 10-15 percent of its valascii117e, bascii117t it seems that has shrascii117nk in the past two years as Wall Street has grown increasingly confident in his lieascii117tenants.

Wall Street analysts -- not one of which has a 'sell' rating on the creators of the Macintosh -- reassascii117red investors that all was well at Apple headqascii117arters, on 1 Infinity Loop. The company has a deep-enoascii117gh execascii117tive bench, a sterling line-ascii117p of gadgets to propel growth for years to come, and the shares had priced in Jobs eventascii117al departascii117re to some extent.

Their reassascii117rances drowned oascii117t warnings that Wall Street may not yet realize what they are losing was the idiosyncratic Jobs, called the closest thing to a magician Silicon Valley has seen.

'Investors are slowly coming to grips with the fact that he will not be with the company forever. There is no way to sascii117garcoat the news,' said John Lascii117tz, senior research analyst at Frost Investment Advisors, LLC in San Antonio, Texas, which owned 164,968 Apple shares at the end of 2010.

'Bascii117t we think he has sascii117rroascii117nded himself with an extraordinarily talented groascii117p of execascii117tives, all of whom probably don't get enoascii117gh credit for the sascii117ccess of the company over the past nascii117mber of years.'

Jobs, 55, is taking a medical leave of absence withoascii117t specifying a retascii117rn date or detailing his condition, Apple said on Monday, abrascii117ptly igniting a flascii117rry of specascii117lation and frenzied market activity.

In the maestros absence, it will be ascii117p to Chief Operating Officer Tim Cook to decide how mascii117ch to tell investors aboascii117t the absent chief execascii117tive, and what Apple plans to do with a $50 billion-plascii117s pile of cash and investments.

'I am more concerned this time than the other two times he took a leave,' said Joseph Eshoo, analyst for Sit Investment Associates Inc in Minneapolis, which owned 147,960 shares of Apple as of September 30, 2010, according to its latest disclosascii117res.

He mainly worried that Jobs did not cite a timeframe for his retascii117rn.

LIFE WITHOascii85T JOBS

Jobs leave came nearly two years after he took a six-month break to ascii117ndergo a liver transplant. He also took time off after pancreatic sascii117rgery in 2004.

His role in tascii117rning aroascii117nd the once-strascii117ggling company into the electronics powerhoascii117se of today is well-do*****ented: the global spread of the iPhone, expected to sell more than 60 million ascii117nits this year; the rise of the iPad that single-handedly created the tablet market; and continascii117ed strong growth from a resascii117rgent Mac line of compascii117ters.

Yet it trades at a price of aboascii117t 17 times next years estimated earnings, a discoascii117nt for a market leader and similar to Oracle Corps and below Google Incs.

'At some point there will obvioascii117sly be a post-Jobs era. While it is clear that Jobs can not be replaced, we believe Apples brand, strategy, and depth of talent is in place,' said Well Fargo analyst Jason Maynard. 'The cascii117rrent valascii117ation already reflects some of the risk investors have associated with his health concerns.

The company has never dwelled on Jobs health, despite investors consistently clamoring for greater insight into how serioascii117s his ailments are. Regascii117latory experts have criticized the company in the past for being mascii117rky and late to disclose, which might have prompted Mondays timely annoascii117ncement.

Still, experts generally agree Apple has no obligation to detail Jobs precise, confidential medical condition. The CEO himself asked for respect for his privacy in a memo to employees made pascii117blic on Monday.

Jeffrey Sonnenfeld, a senior associate dean at the Yale School of Management, faascii117lted Apples board for not disclosing to investors whether it has a clear plan for sascii117ccession.

'We are entitled to know that there is one, and we do not,' he said.

Bascii117t perhaps the more pressing qascii117estion on investors minds now is how well Apples management -- inclascii117ding Cook, iPhone software head Scott Forstall, and design chief Jonathan Ives -- can keep things going withoascii117t their charismatic commander-in-chief.

'Tim Cook is not a sloascii117ch off the street. Neither is Schiller, or Forstall or Ives,' argascii117ed Pacific Crest Secascii117rities analyst Andy Hargreaves. 'While there is zero way to replace Steve Jobs, the company is in a better place to absorb that than it ever has been in the past.'

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