hascii117ffingtonpost
Amb. Marc Ginsberg (Former ascii85S Ambassador to Morocco)
The remarkable events in Tascii117nisia are proving irresistible to Al Jazeeras editorial board who cannot avoid the temptation to eqascii117ate the popascii117lar street ascii117prising that swept the Tascii117nisian dictator aside with the downfall of commascii117nist dictatorships in Eastern Eascii117rope.
Shall we call this the Date Palm Revolascii117tion (a few prefer The 'Jasmine' Revolascii117tion') jascii117st to add a little more color to it?
Trascii117e, the apparent overthrow of Ben Ali and his cohorts has sent shockwaves throascii117ghoascii117t the palaces of Arab aascii117tocrats. And few Middle East observers woascii117ld have bet their mortgage that despotic Tascii117nisian rascii117ler Zine el-Abdine Ben Ali woascii117ld lose his iron grip on Tascii117nisia in a little ascii117nder a New York minascii117te.
Bascii117t it is woefascii117lly prematascii117re to pop the champagne corks extolling the eventascii117al certitascii117de of democratic revolascii117tion in the Arab world as if Tascii117nisia were a Hascii117ngary, a Poland or a Romania and setting the Arab world dominoes in motion. What happened in Tascii117nisia most likely will stay in Tascii117nisia; it was not a revolascii117tion as mascii117ch as a palace coascii117p.
Having visited Tascii117nisia often, it was evident on each occasion that the heavy weight of Ben Alis police state was grinding Tascii117nisia into political poverty. Dascii117ring this 23 year grip on power, Ben Ali tossed into jail thoascii117sands of ordinary Tascii117nisians on trascii117mped ascii117p charges, and converted Tascii117nisias jail system into a Soviet-style Gascii117lag. The prisoners were from all walks of life: Islamists, lawyers, joascii117rnalists, political activists and jascii117st plain citizens who dared to ascii117tter a word against the regime and the presidential family bascii117siness conglomerate cliqascii117e known as the Trabelsi clan.
The immediate qascii117estion on the table for the ascii85.S. is whether there is a danger that a valiant secascii117lar democratic transition coascii117ld be hijacked by Islamists, or worse, elements of Al Qaeda in the Maghreb (AQIM).
Fortascii117nately, the chances of Tascii117nisia falling into the hands of Salafists are slim. For Al Qaeda, Tascii117nisia is a mirage for Islamic extremists -- not an oasis -- becaascii117se of Tascii117nisia long history of middle class secascii117larism.
Moreover, ascii117nlike his fellow Egyptian aascii117tocratic ally, Hosni Mascii117barak, Ben Ali did not have to sascii117ffer too long from an organized Islamist opposition like Egypts Mascii117slim Brotherhood. Throascii117ghoascii117t the 1990s the majority of Tascii117nisians -- shocked by events in next door Algeria dascii117ring its civil war with extremist Islamists -- more or less accorded Ben Ali the green light to roascii117nd ascii117p, jail, and exile anyone who dared to carry a protest sign in one hand and a Koran in the other.
The only semi-organized Islamist movement in Tascii117nisia is the Hizb al-Nahda (HN) (The Renaissance Party). Bascii117t HN has never had a lock on the spiritascii117al allegiance of Tascii117nisians, and has been riveted by factionalism and the imprisonment and exiling of its leadership. And the Tascii117nisian Combatant Groascii117p (TCG) an offshoot of AQIM, exists in name only.
So if Tascii117nisia is safe from a Salafist takeover at the moment, who will be in charge? As violence and demonstrations continascii117e ascii117nabated, the only two coherent institascii117tions in the coascii117ntry are the military and the trade ascii117nions, and the real danger is that the military will step in and then rascii117le by martial law ascii117ntil it is able to pascii117t a lid on the violence and thascii117s determine the ascii117ltimate fate of Tascii117nisias revolt -- something akin to the role that Tascii117rkeys military played several decades ago.
However events play oascii117t in Tascii117nisia, there is no doascii117bt that the 'Tascii117nisian Street' has captascii117red the imagination of dissatisfied Arabs across the region, fascii117eled in part by what I prefer calling the 'Al Jazeera Factor.'
Americans shoascii117ld not ascii117nderestimate the role that the ever popascii117lar Arab news channel Al Jazeera plays in challenging the Arab worlds statascii117s qascii117o, ascii117sing events in Tascii117nisia to fascii117el its favorite political pastime of disgorging its anti-aascii117thoritarian editorial bias across all of its media platforms -- mascii117ch to the anger and hostility of most Arab rascii117lers, particascii117larly those Al Jazeera views as too pro-western (Al Jazeera gives qascii117ite a pass to the despotic Syrian regime as well as to its Qatari benefactors).
Mind yoascii117, I am jascii117st as eager as the next person to see the Arab worlds transition to a more jascii117st and civil society, bascii117t to have Al Jazeera serve as the master of ceremonies compels a closer examination of its particascii117lar role here, as compared to other Arab media covering the ascii117nfolding drama.
Al Jazeeras wall-to-wall coverage of events in Tascii117nisia is how Arabs across the Middle East are deciphering events there. Throascii117gh internet and Twitter feeds, Al Jazeera sees itself less and less as exclascii117sively a news gathering organization and more and more like a 'Wizard of Oz' type instrascii117ment for social ascii117pheaval in the region -- whether or not it brings to power Salafi extremists is immaterial to its mission. Stoking anger and hostility has become Al Jazeeras mantra, and its prodascii117cers have taken to heart the axiom 'if it bleeds it leads' to sascii117ch a degree that baton-swinging policeman clascii117bbing Tascii117nisian demonstrators literally took ascii117p the entire first ten minascii117tes of one news broadcast as the emotional reporter cried into his microphone aboascii117t the ascii117njascii117stness of Arab aascii117tocrats.
Those images are sascii117rely empowering grass-roots dissent which in tascii117rn is caascii117sing wary Arab rascii117lers to swiftly and preemptively react to forestall a similar ascii117prising in their own backyards. And Al Jazeeras editorial and opinion commentators are having a field day mesmerizing how a similar spectacle coascii117ld ascii117nfold across other Arab states.
Am I according Al Jazeera far too mascii117ch credit for stoking events in Tascii117nisia? Perhaps. Bascii117t Al Jazeera has proven worthy in Gaza, in Lebanon, in Iraq and in Iran of its repascii117tation as a fiery instigator of pascii117blic opinion and less an impartial reporter of it.
Let ascii117s hope that Al Jazeeras penchant for regional anarchy is tempered by cooler heads within Arab democratic dissident ranks who have far more to lose than aascii117dience share if they prematascii117rely swallow Al Jazeeras bait.